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2021/05/06 / Erste Group Research

Unmistakable signs of an economic upswing

So far, 60% of the Stoxx 600 constituent companies have posted their earnings in the European 1Q 2021 reporting season. Almost 70% of them delivered positive surprises. Aggregated across all sectors, revenues beat consensus expectations slightly, while earnings did so to an unusual extent. Leading economic indicator readings give cause for optimism as well. For the Eurozone economy, progress with respect to vaccinations will remain a crucial factor. This should lead to a dynamic recovery from 2Q 2021.

EU’s EUR 750bn recovery and resilience program is to accompany the economic recovery – and at the same time make post-corona Europe more environmentally friendly, sustainable, digital, innovative and crisis-proof.

Credit markets have in all likelihood already priced in numerous favorable developments, spreads in the corporate segment have been in a tightening trend with slight fluctuations since the end of March. Stock market volatility has recently increased somewhat as news reports about supply shortages have become more frequent. In light of this, and particularly in view of the recent increase in German Bund yields, clear stabilization signals are expected from the ECB, in the June meeting the latest.

Special topics of the week:
- ASFINAG: Annual results 2020

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCredit News
Topic in focusCredits/ Corporate bonds
Economy in focusAustria, Eurozone
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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