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2021/03/10 / Erste Group Research

Switch to investment-led growth


We forecast real GDP growth at +4.2% in 2021. The recovery is shaped by the vaccination progress. Real incomes should barely grow this year, with the labour market yet to adjust to the permanent changes in consumer behaviour, while minimum wages were raised by 3.1% in January and the public sector salaries were frozen. Pent-up household demand and state investments should be the main growth drivers. Soft data indicates further economic expansion in 1Q21 as the second pandemic wave had a limited impact. The third pandemic wave is underway. Its economic consequences are likely to be mitigated by relatively fast advance in Covid-19 inoculation process.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/03/10
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusRomania
Currency in focusRomanian Leu
Sector in focus-
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