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2021/02/05 / Erste Group Research

Will Draghi save Italy from political chaos?

Italy's President Mattarella this week tasked ex-ECB President Mario Draghi with forming a government. Earlier, ex-Prime Minister Conte failed to form a new government. In the current environment of the pandemic, Mattarella refuses to agree to new elections.

The next stimulus package is currently being negotiated in the US. The new president's proposal includes a series of measures totaling USD 1.9 trillion (approx. 9% of GDP). Currently, the Democrats are negotiating with the Republicans in the Senate, although they do not actually have to.

In January, Eurozone inflation rose surprisingly strongly, from -0.3% y/y in December to +0.9% y/y. Several factors played a role in this. Firstly, a temporary reduction in the VAT rate in Germany expired at the beginning of 2021. In addition, Eurostat strongly adjusted the weights of the basket of goods used for the inflation calculation.

Following the publication of a first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth in 2020, we have revised our GDP forecasts this week.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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