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2021/01/29 / Erste Group Research

France and Spain deliver positive surprise

France delivered a positive surprise, despite tough retrenchment measures from November. GDP fell by 1.3% q/q in 4Q, much less than expected. Spain also surprised positively, as GDP grew by 0.4% q/q, despite the difficult environment.

Based on the country-level data available so far, we expect Eurozone GDP to have declined marginally, by 0.5-0.8% q/q in 4Q. Thanks to the continuation of the global recovery, the country-specific restrictive measures probably hurt the Eurozone economy much less than initially feared.

In January, as in previous months, energy prices are expected to weigh on Eurozone inflation (published February 3). As of March, we already expect considerable upward pressure from energy prices on Eurozone inflation, given the low comparative values from the previous year.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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