Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2020/04/03 / Erste Group Research

Economic activity stongly impaired in 2020 amid coronavirus outbreak


Following average growth of 2.4% in 2019, growth prospect got gloomier going into 2020 as rapid COVID-19 outbreak took heavy toll on the economy. Domestic side of the economy takes a hit due to lock-down measures, followed by second-round effects. Moreover, deteriorated EU growth outlook (which was also present before coronavirus outbreak, albeit at much less pronounced pace) would hit external demand performance hard. Thus, in the light of current situation, we see GDP contracting around 6.5% mark, with risks remaining pronounced on the downside.

Inflation is likely to diminish as demand side pressure should take some hit in coming months, while cost-side should reflect lower oil prices. Fiscal side developments would be shaped by economic slowdown and fiscal response to COVID-19, in that sense we would expect that budget would go significantly in red in 2020. Public debt is seen reverting back to the upside trajectory by moving above 75% of GDP mark. On the political scene, beginning of the year brought government reshuffle as Mr. Jansa, leader SDS, was appointed as new PM following Mr. Sarec resignation.


PDF Download Download PDF (104kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/04/03
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer