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2020/04/02 / Erste Group Research

2020 – Tougher than 2009?

The rapid deterioration of economic prospects due to the COVID-19 outbreak forced a drastic cut to our 2020 GDP forecast, as we now expect at least a 7.5% contraction to occur, i.e. still highlighting downside risks.

The baseline implies quarantine measures lasting well into 2Q, implying a massive hit to both domestic and external demand in 2Q and strongly weighing on the tourism outlook in 3Q. Gradual domestic demand normalization is envisaged throughout 2H20 (mainly private consumption), while the deteriorated EA growth outlook should maintain a strong headwind on the export side.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


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