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2020/03/17 / Erste Group Research

Outlook dominated by global pandemic


The 2020 economic outlook gets a COVID-19 footprint and suffers a massive hit. We now expect that economic growth will at best stagnate in 2020, i.e. we still see substantial negative risks.

As a baseline, we anticipate tourism taking a massive pre-season hit, followed by some stabilization. The anticipated EZ recession will weigh on exports, while deteriorated sentiment and the deteriorating labor market outlook will hamper so far healthy domestic demand outlook. The 2020 GDP outlook will remain a work in progress over the coming weeks, as we get more clarity on the duration and severity of the outbreak.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/03/17
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-
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