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2019/12/10 / Erste Group Research

Slovenia Outlook | Growth shifting into lower gear, but still remaining stable

In line with expectations, growth dynamics further slowed down in 3Q19 to 2.3% y/y (from 2.5% y/y in 2Q19), with negative net exports performance weighing on the growth, despite steady domestic demand performance. We see headline figure remaining at similar levels going forward, supported by both private consumption and investments, while net exports are seen as staying in the negative region. Bottom line, GDP growth is seen remaining slightly below 3% mark in mid-run.

CPI outlook is expected to remain comfortable, with strong domestic demand driving upside pressures, while cost-side pressures should play more benign part. Fiscal trends should stay strong, with proposed budget plan for 2020 envisaging another year in positive, despite risks coming global and domestic environment. While 2019 was marked by ratings upgrade on both S&P and Fitch’s side, we see Moody’s being next in line for upgrade call from current Baa1 level, having more than enough positive drivers to support such decision.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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