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2019/12/04 / Erste Group Research

Bosnia and Herzegovina Outlook: Growth to remain subdued

After rising 3.6% y/y in 2018, GDP growth eased to 2.7% y/y in 1H19, reflecting the notably more challenging external environment. Domestic demand remained solid, with the biggest contributions coming from private consumption and fixed investments. Exports growth slowed to mid-single digits, while import growth roughly doubled in 1H19 compared to last year’s average growth; hence, the key drag on growth this year is coming from net exports.

Inflation took nosedive, but is expected to have bottomed out. C/A deficit is deteriorating, amid worsening trade trends, while fiscal position remained stable, given lengthy political deadlock. Recent long-awaited resolution of political deadlock is positive, and given accumulated fiscal space, implies stronger public contribution to growth moving forward.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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