Poland Weekly Focus | Growth dynamics to lose some color
Flash estimate of 3Q19 GDP growth to be released this week. We expect 4.0% y/y dynamics to be driven by domestic demand, with slowing industrial sector likely downplaying figure. November inflation and growth report to be published by NBP.
November 12 | NBP to publish inflation and growth report. The National Bank of Poland will publish its November inflation and growth report. The basic assumptions and findings were discussed during the press conference after last week’s MPC meeting. The projection was prepared with the assumption of stable rates in Poland and unfreezing of energy prices for households next year.
November 14 | Growth to lose some momentum. We expect GDP growth to somewhat ease in 3Q19, to 4.0% y/y (1.0% q/q), in line with market expectations. Domestic demand should remain the key growth driver, as evidenced by solid retail sales growth, which is benefitting from the tight labor market. However, weaker industrial production will likely weigh on the overall growth figure.
Bond market drivers | 10Y yield jumps above 2.2%. On the back of improving global sentiment and increasing prospects for a resolution of the trade war between the US and China, yields on core markets went significantly up. The 10Y German Bund increased by 10bp, while 10Y US Treasuries jumped by an impressive 20bp. The Polish local curve followed core market developments and the long end of the curve surged by almost 20bp, testing July’s highs of close to 2.25%. If improved market sentiment persists, we see risks to the upside to our current year-end forecast of 1.95%.
FX market drivers | Zloty weakened marginally. Over the course of the week, the zloty weakened somewhat against the EUR and the EURPLN went slightly above 4.27. Bearing in mind the recent strong appreciation of the zloty, we revised our year-end forecast and see the EURPLN at 4.30 by the end of the year. We believe that the flash GDP release will likely be a non-event for the zloty and the EURPLN will focus on global developments and trade war news.