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2019/11/08 / Erste Group Research

Week ahead | Settlement of trade disputes within reach?

The stock and bond markets seem to be increasingly optimistic that one day the specter of trade conflicts will come to an end. China and the United States have agreed in recent weeks to lift tariffs. This is to take place at different stages, but what is still missing is a concrete timetable. It seems that both sides still have to agree on how much of the total tariffs should be lifted.

The new economic outlook of the European Commission is clearly more pessimistic compared to the spring and the interim summer forecasts. Expected GDP growth of 1.1% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020 (summer forecast: 1.2% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020) is in line with our own forecasts. The expected downward adjustment was motivated by the continuing weakness of the manufacturing sector and aggravating uncertainties, which also weighed on international trade and could not be sufficiently offset in the short term by domestic demand.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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