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2019/11/06 / Erste Group Research

Estonia Special | Further moderation on horizon

Investment growth remains robust, unlike in the other Baltic states. Weakening foreign demand is to weigh on growth in 2020. The European Commission’s growth forecast is likely to be revised, due to stronger than expected growth in 1H19 and the revision of historical data.

The Estonian Central Statistical office recently revised the national accounts for the 1995-2018 period, raising GDP growth figures by 0.8pp on average. In consequence, Estonia expanded at an impressive pace of 4.8% y/y in 2018 (up from 3.9%). Strong growth dynamics were also sustained in 1H19, as GDP increased by 4.3% y/y.

Although, the economy slowed somewhat in 2Q19, domestic demand remained robust. Unlike in other Baltic states, where investment growth lost some of its color this year, in Estonia it continues to flourish. Investment growth reached almost 25% y/y in 2Q19, supported by EU funds utilization.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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