Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/10/28 / Erste Group Research

Poland Weekly Focus | Inflation pressure to ease


We expect flash inflation estimate for October at 2.5% y/y, marginally below previous month’s figure. FOMC meeting and Eurozone first GDP estimate for 3Q19 should attract bond and FX market attention.

October 31 | Flash inflation for October. We expect the flash inflation estimate for October to further ease and arrive at 2.5% y/y (0.3% m/m), down from the 2.6% y/y observed a month ago. All in all, inflation pressure has somewhat weakened recently. We see the headline figure at 3.0% y/y at the end of the year, before peaking slightly above the upper bound of the inflation target at the end of 1Q20.

Bond market drivers | 10Y yield fluctuates around 2%. Over the course of the week, the Polish bond market focused on global developments and the 10Y yield followed core market movements. In the first half of the week, it dropped by almost 10bp to 1.95% and recovered towards the end of the week to close only marginally below 2%. This week, global events will again attract market attention, with the FOMC meeting and Brexit. We expect another quarter point rate cut in the US. Moreover, we will get to see the extent of the slowdown in the Eurozone in 3Q19, as the first flash estimate of GDP growth will be released this week.

FX market drivers | Zloty ends downward ride. The Polish zloty ended its strongest appreciation ride since 2008, as the EURPLN was mostly stable last week. We believe that the zloty will somewhat weaken and see it at 4.33 vs. the EUR at year-end. The FOMC meeting and flash estimate of 3Q19 GDP growth in the Eurozone will drive the development of the EURUSD. We might therefore see a more volatile zloty this week.

PDF Download Download PDF (348kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/10/28
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer