Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/09/30 / Erste Group Research

Poland | Weekly Focus

PMI and flash CPI due tomorrow. Growing concerns over whether 3Q GDP growth will stay above 4% y/y, so PMI for September likely to set first ‘final’ expectations for magnitude of slowdown. Inflation should ease in September, supporting stability of rates rhetoric after MPC meeting on Wednesday. Series of important data releases in US to indicate whether weakening that began in August persists. Inflation due this week in Eurozone.

The development of the Polish bond market was pretty stable over the course of last week, with 10Y yields holding close to 2%, as we also saw little fluctuation on the German bond market. The key issue for the bond market is to determine whether the weakening that began in August in the US has persisted.

Since the announcement of the date of the ECJ ruling (October 3), the zloty remains weak, at around 4.37 vs. the EUR. Thursday’s decision may bring some volatility to the FX market. On top of that, the worsening economic outlook also does not help the zloty. We decided to revise the EURPLN forecast and moved it up to 4.35 at the end of the year. Currently, expected development on both global and local markets does not support any meaningful appreciation.

PDF Download Download PDF (426kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer