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2019/09/04 / Erste Group Research

Interest Rate Outlook September 2019 | Downturn made to order

Unresolved political crises, worries about the economy combined with renewed monetary policy support from central banks are creating an environment for safe US and German government bonds that could hardly be more favorable. However, at the same time current valuations reflect a short-term market view. The economy is neither on the cusp of another 2008 nor another 2011 or 2012, when the situation seemed close to spiraling out of control. The current crises are entirely different. They are political rather than financial crises. They can be contained and the solutions depend on the decisions of individuals and are therefore possible at any time. We do not expect to see the long-term economic downturn markets are currently pricing in.

In addition to our regular outlook for monetary policy and government bond markets we are also continuing our special series on mega-trends. This time we discuss the effects of aging populations on the most important macroeconomic variables. Another focus topic examines the degree of resource utilization in the labor markets of the euro zone and the US.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameInterest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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