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2019/06/11 / Erste Group Research

Hungary Macro Outlook: Economy to remain strong, amid global risks

We have revised upwards our call for 2019 GDP growth to 4.5% y/y. Household demand and investments could remain strong, while the contribution of net exports to GDP might remain negative. As a result, the C/A balance could worsen further. Annual average inflation might be 3.3% in 2019.

By raising the O/N depo rate to -0.05% and starting to reduce the outstanding amount of FX-swaps, the MNB started to tighten its dovish monetary policy in March, but did not give strong forward guidance. The dovish stance might remain for a long time and we do not expect further relevant monetary tightening steps to be announced this year.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusHungary
Currency in focusHungarian Forint
Sector in focus-


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