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2019/06/11 / Erste Group Research

Serbia Macro Outlook: Growth profile unchanged; focus shifting to political arena

Growth slowed in 1Q19 (2.5% y/y, -0.9% q/q), thus largely meeting our expectations of 1%-alike moderation of growth this year. Fiscal performance continues to outperform expectations, pushing the public debt burden down to 51.6% of GDP in April.

We forecast growth moderation by 1pp in 2019 to 3.3% y/y vs our previous forecast of 3% growth, as external headwind expectations seem a tad overdone and announced labor tax incentives imply further private consumption acceleration. Growth profile remains unchanged with private consumption and investments the strongest positive contributors.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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