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2019/05/15 / Erste Group Research

Interest Rate Outlook | How weak is the economy really?

The economic outlook is the dominant driver of interest rate markets. How pronounced will the economic slowdown be, how will political trouble spots evolve and will they inflict further damage? Recent economic data were mixed. A period of weaker growth is on the horizon, but there are no indications of a severe slump. Markets are betting on negative scenario though: a US rate cut is expected before the end of the year and yields on 10-year German Bunds have dropped below zero.

In addition to our assessment of monetary policy in the euro zone and the US and the associated government bond markets, this issue of the Interest Rate Outlook includes the first part of a series of analyses of megatrends we expect to emerge in the coming decade. We begin by discussing the implications of climate change and the fight against it. There is a chance that the long overdue changeover to a carbon-free economy will be implemented, and the impact will be profound.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameInterest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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