Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2018/12/12 / Erste Group Research

HR Macro Outlook Croatia: 2019 GDP outlook becoming more challenging

The economic outlook will become more challenging as we move into 2019, hence we are plotting modest growth declaration of 2.6% (vs. 2018e of 2.8%). Domestic demand looks set to remain on a fairly strong footing, with private consumption continuing to be backed by the labor market, consumer credit and tax framework, while investments should gain some traction amid, hopefully, increasing EU funds absorption. External demand is facing headwinds from the anticipated slowdown in key export markets and, courtesy of global growth uncertainties, remains the biggest downside risk for the 2019 GDP outlook.

The monetary policy outlook remains largely intact, as the inflation outlook suggests moderating headline inflation pressures and ongoing limited demand-side pressures. The steady FX outlook and gradual appreciation pressures additionally point to an ongoing lax monetary policy stance and high LCY liquidity that would continue to anchor MM rates close to record lows and support the long end of the curve, which is anticipated to come under some upward pressure owing to the DE yields trajectory. Although we are not ruling out some prudential measures aimed to curb the credit dynamics. 2019 should also bring the credit rating back to investment grade region (supported heavily by the anticipated sound fiscal stance) and hopefully some positive signals as far as eventual ERM II membership is concerned.

PDF Download Download PDF (130kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer