Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2018/10/12 / Erste Group Research

4Q18 CEE bond market report


Deflationary risks in CEE seem to be gone, against the backdrop of strong economic growth, ever tighter labor markets and the revival of credit flow. Consequently, rates and yields have accordingly increased in most CEE countries in recent quarters. A positive development is that the major part of the yield increases is over and only about a 30bp yield increase on average is expected in the coming four quarters. We have seen increases more front-loaded outside the Eurozone, while yields in Slovakia and Slovenia have remained at very low levels. Given that the ECB’s QE program is nearing its end, both countries are at risk of higher yield increases.

The Czech central bank seems to be taking its task to keep the inflation rate near its target very seriously: with one of the tightest labor markets in the whole of the EU, the CNB will likely continue hiking its key interest rate unless the koruna starts to appreciate, although this is already priced into bond yields. The other end of the spectrum is Hungary, the country with the second tightest labor market in the region, with both headline and core inflation relatively high in the region, but the central bank still maintaining a dovish tone in its statements. Looking at the implied forward curves of CEE countries, it seems that the risk of higher yields in the horizon of 3-5 years is well priced into current bond prices, while the very steep short end (up to 3Y) points to an increase of short-term yields in the next couple of years in all countries except for the Czech Republic, where the forward curve is relatively flat, compared to others.

CEE countries are in relatively good position in terms of debt issuance this year: 62-100% of planned financing had already been carried out by the end of September. Efforst of countries to increase funding in their local currency (Hungary being followed by Serbia and most recently Poland) and selling retail paper (Hungary might increase the already high stock, and Romania has started its retail bond program), combined by recent, successful Eurobond issuance in Romania and Hungary, makes us think that issuing of FX debt will not be overwhelming in the coming months in CEE.





PDF Download Download PDF (781kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2018/10/12
Languageen
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer