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2018/09/12 / Erste Group Research

Macro Outlook Slovenia: Growth momentum to stay strong going into 2H18

2Q18 GDP growth decelerated to 3.8% y/y, amid a somewhat disappointing private consumption footprint and negative inventories performance. On the other hand, net exports showed a positive contribution, with stronger export vs. import growth. The CA profile still maintains a steady surplus and the external position continues to improve. Following the 2017 budget surplus, the fiscal position should further improve this year amid strong tax revenues and decreasing interest expenditures, while the financing position remains comfortable, as the MoF secured its financing needs early in 2018, thus maintaining a more passive stance on the issuance side.

Going forward, we expect to see a more favorable private consumption profile and stable investments dynamics, while net export support should play a less supportive role amid ongoing imports pressures, thus suggesting GDP growth of around 4.2% in FY18. Inflation is expected to maintain similar levels as seen thus far in 2018, i.e. showing a stable footprint around the 2% mark. Following June's snap elections, the political stalemate is expected to end during September as a minority coalition cabinet forms, although risks remain elevated.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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