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2018/09/03 / Erste Group Research

RS Short Note, Serbia

2Q18 GDP landed above all expectations; FY18 growth forecast revised to 4% y/y

Serbian Statistical Office revised 2Q18 GDP flash estimate from 4.4% y/y to 4.8% y/y and 1Q18 GDP figure from 4.6% y/y to 4.9% y/y. Newly published data shows that expansion in Serbian economy is backed by strong domestic demand, primarily by strong rebound in investment activity, while net exports’ contribution is in negative region, as Serbian economy is fairly import-oriented. We expect similar developments ahead, with domestic demand keeping its supportive role and net exports its dragging role for headline figure. We revised our growth forecast from 3.5% y/y to 4% y/y.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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