Weekly Focus Poland
We expect flash CPI to arrive at 1.8% y/y. On Wednesday, the structure of GDP will be released. We expect private consumption to sustain growth dynamics of close to 5% and investment growth to accelerate. Domestic data should be mostly neutral for the FX and bond market, which are likely to remain under the influence of global sentiment.
May 31: We expect flash CPI to arrive at 1.8% y/y, or slightly below market consensus.
The inflation rate is broadly expected to increase in May and the months to come, as statistical effects will come in force. Moreover, the prices of food and fuel remain on an upward trend, adding to the inflationary pressure.
May 31: 1Q18 GDP structure should confirm domestic demand as pillar of growth
We do not expect any major revision in the 1Q18 growth dynamics, which, according to the flash estimate, reached 5.1% y/y (1.6% q/q s.a.). The GDP breakdown should confirm that domestic demand was the growth driver, with private consumption maintaining a solid pace of around 5% and investment growth rebounding. Strong retail sales throughout the first quarter and increasing consumer confidence supported a high level of spending. Although performance of industry was a bit weaker throughout 1Q18, construction output growth surged, suggesting that investment activity most likely rebounded. The extent of the rebound will be a crucial piece of information, especially after the substantial downward revision of investment growth in 4Q17.
10Y yields dropping toward 3.2%
The 10Y yield has been continuously dropping throughout the last week,
from 3.33% last Monday to 3.20% on Friday, following similar trends on
core markets, as the 10Y German bund dropped overall by 12bp last
week. Over the last month we have also seen a widening of the spread
towards 280bp, which we consider to be close to fundamentally justified
values. All in all, we expect limited pressure on yields in the coming
months, as inflationary pressure has been limited and the supply of bonds
is likely to remain curbed in the coming months.
Zloty remains under pressure
The zloty, similar to other currencies in the region has been impacted by
unfavorable global sentiment and risk-off mode. The domestic data was
mixed and remained neutral for the market, with the EURPLN following
the trend of the EURUSD, reflecting depreciation of the Turkish lira and
other Emerging Markets. This week, domestic data should be neutral
while public holiday may impact the liquidity on the market.