Research Detail
| 2024/09/26 / Erste Group Research |
CEE Special Report | US election: What would a Trump victory mean for CEE There are two issues we see having potentially the greatest impact on the markets globally: future US trade policy and the development of the country’s public budget. Donald Trump has repeatedly called for tariffs of 10% on all imports and 60% on imports from China. The highest proportion of EU exports to the US is accounted for by machinery and components of all kinds, closely followed by pharmaceutical products and vehicles. Conversely, with the exception of fossil fuels, pharmaceutical products, aircraft industry products and machinery also account for the highest share of US exports to the EU. As far as the CEE region is concerned, the share of its exports to the US is rather low. We try to quantify the economic impact of global trade wars on CEE based on the German Economic Institute estimates. The institute looked at the impact of tariffs on the world economy, including Germany. We use its estimates for Germany as a key input to estimate the impact on CEE. A -1.4% shock to the German economy would translate into lower GDP growth for CEE economies ranging from -1.0% to -0.2% in the first year after the shock (depending on the country). Finally, for the CEE region, the declarations regarding aid to Ukraine and, more broadly speaking, matters of defense will be important developments as well. As for other issues, electric vehicles are seen as threat to auto industry by Trump. The US resistance toward electric vehicles would potentially hold-off the global demand, reducing Europe’s and the region’s export potential in that category. On the other hand, high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could benefit European manufacturers from rising export opportunities in the US in the face of higher tariffs with China. As far as defense is concerned, sustaining the NATO alliance should be high priority for CEE. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia met NATO’s 2% defense spending goal in 2023. Czechia, Croatia, Romania, and Slovenia are below NATO’s guideline, but defense expenditures have increased significantly when compared to a 2019 baseline. Poland saw the largest increase in defense spending, with expenditure almost doubling over the past four years to 3,9% of GDP. The country plans to further increase its spending on defense to 4.7% of GDP in 2025. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2024/09/26 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Economies Special Report |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | CEE |
| Currency in focus | - |
| Sector in focus | - |
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