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2023/09/26 / Erste Group Research

Economy expected to stagnate in 2023, inflation remains high

The economic slowdown in Austria, which started in 2H22, turned into a recession in 2Q23. Industry and trade suffered the biggest decline. Sentiment indicators continue to show a bleak prospect in almost all sectors. We expect the economic downturn to continue in the next months.

Inflation broke the downward trend and rose again in August. However, it is expected to decline in autumn, albeit slower than previously assumed, partly due to the base effects. In September, the ECB increased the key interest rates by a further 25 basis points. We believe it is very likely that with this increase interest rates have peaked.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusAustria
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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