Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2023/02/06 / Erste Group Research

Romania Special | Inflation Forecast Update

We revise down year-end inflation forecast amid declining soft commodity futures prices and lower energy prices. Inflationary pressures should ease after the first quarter, due to favourable energy-related statistical base effect. We see NBR holding key rate steady at 7.00% throughout 2023. Persistent and broad-based features of the current high inflation suggests that it should not decline quickly and hence upside risks to inflation trajectory remain.

Lower inflation outlook is mostly priced into ROMGBs, in our view. At the same time, a significant deceleration in inflation should imply higher ‘two-way flexibility’ on FX. The NBR already signalled its discomfort with RON strengthening by loosening money market liquidity management.

PDF Download Download PDF (696kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusRomania
Currency in focusRomanian Leu
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. Please read more information here


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer