|2023/01/13 / Erste Group Research|
Inflation should fall in 2023
Thanks to a further decline to 9.2% y/y in December (previously 10.1% y/y), inflation in the Eurozone has very likely passed its peak. Inflation has fallen mainly due to a significant decline in the upward momentum of energy prices.
Overall, we expect inflation rates to fall continuously in the coming months, mainly due to energy and food prices. However, core inflation will remain a factor of uncertainty in the medium term.
This week, inflation data for the US for December was published. As expected by the market, the inflation rate fell from 7.1% to 6.5%. This was a continuation of an existing trend. The US inflation rate had already peaked in the summer of 2022.
All in all, there are clear signs of a further significant drop in the rate of inflation in the US over the coming months. The open question is whether it will go far enough to satisfy the central bank. In our view, the downturn on the real estate market and a generally weak economy suggest that it will.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||Week ahead|
|Topic in focus||Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Eurozone, United States|
|Currency in focus||Euro, US Dollar|
|Sector in focus||-|
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