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2022/01/11 / Erste Group Research

Climate policy gains economic importance

The global economic recovery should continue in 2022. However, momentum will slow because major economies such as the Eurozone and the US are close to or already above their potential. As a result, fiscal and monetary policy support will also be gradually curtailed in 2022.

We expect Eurozone GDP growth to slow slightly to 4.4% in 2022. The economies of Southern Europe will benefit quite significantly from EU Recovery Plan funding in 2022 and beyond.

The decarbonization of the European economy is triggering a historically unprecedented surge in investment by companies and households. This creates opportunities, especially for manufacturers of environmental technologies, but also risks.

On a monthly basis, Eurozone inflation should start to fall as of January 2022, but on an annual average, we still expect inflation to rise slightly to 2.9% in 2022. In 2023, the situation should ease with an inflation rate of 1.8%.
We expect the US economy to slow down significantly in 1Q22, with growth roughly in line with that of the third quarter of 2021. In addition to the expected high growth rate for the fourth quarter, the recent sharp increase in infections with COVID-19, in particular, argues for weaker economic growth during the coming months.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/01/11
Languageen
Product nameEconomic Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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