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2021/12/07 / Erste Group Research

Domestic demand shaping the growth outlook, as net exports takes the back seat

Following strong rebound in 2Q21 (16.3% y/y) GDP recovery moderated as headline figure posted growth of 5% y/y in 3Q21, supported by ongoing favorable developments on the domestic demand side, while net exports had a negative contribution, on account of the stronger import vs. export increase.

As already suggested by the 3Q release, we see pace of economic recovery remaining moderate also in the last quarter of the year, with domestic demand expected to remain the main growth driver. We trimmed our current growth forecasts to 6.8% in 2021, followed by 4.4% GDP expansion in 2022.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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