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2021/11/05 / Erste Group Research

Will inflation continue to rise?

In October, Eurozone inflation rose sharply to +4.1% y/y. After the momentum of the rise in energy prices picked up again significantly in October. With energy prices having fallen somewhat recently, the upward pressure from the energy component should ease in the short term. With the expiry of base effects, monthly inflation rates are expected to decline from January 2022 at the latest.

Against the backdrop that Eurozone energy prices are likely to settle at a sustainably higher level, we have raised our inflation forecast for 2021 to +2.4% (previously 2.2%) and for 2022 to +2.3% (previously +1.8%). We do not expect upward pressure from energy prices to drop significantly until 2023.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/11/05
Languageen
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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