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2020/08/10 / Erste Group Research

Poland Weekly Focus | 2Q GDP data


We expect the Polish economy to contract -9.2% y/y in the second quarter due to the pandemic. On the one hand, retail sales and industrial output data were relatively strong compared to expectations and point to better performance of the economy in the second quarter. On the other hand, the damage to the service sector, which is difficult to estimate at this point, is likely to drag GDP growth dynamics down. Moreover, the 11.9% y/y contraction of non-Eurozone countries suggests a sizeable drop in Polish GDP, especially as Poland accounts for 25% of the non-euro area weighted average.

After the ups and downs of last week, the 10Y yield sat at 1.28% at the beginning of the week. The spread vs. the 10Y German Bund remains stable. There are no MinFin auctions scheduled this week, so demand for the offer of the Polish development fund (PFR) should be healthy. The fund plans to supply PLN 3-5bn in long-term papers.

It seems that 4.40 vs. the EUR may become a new reference level for a sideways trend for the Polish zloty. This week, GDP data may deliver a positive impulse for the zloty at the end of the week – if we see a positive surprise. Otherwise, EURUSD development is likely to set the pace for the EURPLN.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/08/10
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-
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