Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2020/08/10 / Erste Group Research

Poland Weekly Focus | 2Q GDP data

We expect the Polish economy to contract -9.2% y/y in the second quarter due to the pandemic. On the one hand, retail sales and industrial output data were relatively strong compared to expectations and point to better performance of the economy in the second quarter. On the other hand, the damage to the service sector, which is difficult to estimate at this point, is likely to drag GDP growth dynamics down. Moreover, the 11.9% y/y contraction of non-Eurozone countries suggests a sizeable drop in Polish GDP, especially as Poland accounts for 25% of the non-euro area weighted average.

After the ups and downs of last week, the 10Y yield sat at 1.28% at the beginning of the week. The spread vs. the 10Y German Bund remains stable. There are no MinFin auctions scheduled this week, so demand for the offer of the Polish development fund (PFR) should be healthy. The fund plans to supply PLN 3-5bn in long-term papers.

It seems that 4.40 vs. the EUR may become a new reference level for a sideways trend for the Polish zloty. This week, GDP data may deliver a positive impulse for the zloty at the end of the week – if we see a positive surprise. Otherwise, EURUSD development is likely to set the pace for the EURPLN.

PDF Download Download PDF (214kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer