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2020/07/08 / Erste Group Research

Economic Outlook | Recovery with obstacles

Although the pandemic is not yet under control world-wide, quarantine measures have been relaxed in almost all regions of the world. This has enabled a gradual economic recovery from May onward.

The Netherlands and Germany have so far come through the corona crisis with little economic damage, while France, Italy and Spain are facing a significant economic slump. For 2020 as a whole, we expect euro zone GDP to contract by 7.1%, followed by a recovery in 2021 (+5.4%).

The US economy shows clear signs of a recovery after the massive slump in April. However, following the recent sharp rise in the number of daily new COVID-19 infections, risks to the economic outlook have increased.

As long as there is no medical solution for COVID-19, uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high. The quality of crisis management and compliance with safety measures will determine how the recovery in different economic regions evolves.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameEconomic Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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