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2020/06/05 / Erste Group Research

Week ahead | How fast will the economy recover?

Expectations for the US labour market in May were grossly misjudged by the market. The market had expected a decline in employment of 7.5 million In fact, there was a rise of 2.5 million.

Next week, the FOMC of the US Fed will meet and decide on further monetary policy. The general direction will not change. With regard to the outlook, however, the Federal Reserve could become more specific.

Now that the incidence of infection is largely under control in almost all countries in the Eurozone, the economy is being gradually opened up. However, necessary safety measures are now leading to longerlasting business losses in many areas of the service industry than we had previously assumed. Against this backdrop, we are lowering our GDP forecast for 2020.

In view of the globally very different situation with COVID-19 infections, we cannot expect all borders to be opened soon and thus a corresponding contribution of tourism to GDP in the second half of the year. Therefore, we have revised our expectations for Austrian GDP growth in 2020 downwards.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/06/05
Languageen
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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