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2020/01/24 / Erste Group Research

Week Ahead | Political risks in Italy rise

Triggered by drastically declining approval rates and an ongoing dispute over the direction of the party, this week Luigi Di Maio resigned as head of the 5-star movement that currently rules Italy. This benefits the right-wing Lega party, which is currently rushing from success to success in regional elections. A clear electoral success of the Lega on Sunday in the regional elections in Emilia Romagna could lead to a slight further rise in risk premiums for Italian government bonds.

At next week’s meeting the Fed's FOMC should leave monetary policy untouched. The most exciting question will likely be how Chairman Powell assesses the economic impact of the trade deal with China.

Eurozone GDP growth should stabilize at around +0.3% q/q in Q4 2019. We expect Eurozone inflation to remain stable at around +1.3% to +1.4% y/y in January. The main focus will be on the development of core inflation.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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