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2023/03/10 / Erste Group Research
Slovenia | 2023 growth set to decelerate, with more balanced risks to the outlook

2023 growth set to decelerate, with more balanced risks to the outlook

As anticipated, GDP growth further decelerated in 4Q22, as the headline figure landed at 0.2% y/y amid deflated growth dynamics on both the private consumption and investments sides, while net exports had a mild negative contribution. On the full-year scale, GDP posted a 5.4% increase, mainly on the back of a strong domestic demand performance in 1H22. Going into this year, domestic demand is seen further losing momentum, while the export performance is facing EU slowdown headwinds. Overall, we expect the FY23 figure around 1%, with risks looking more balanced amid somewhat lowered global uncertainty.

While the inflation trajectory remains under pronounced upside pressure, recent months brought a gradual deceleration trend, with the headline figure returning to single digits. We see inflation staying at elevated levels, albeit further unwinding as energy prices ease and growth stays weak. On the fiscal side, following better than initially expected budget execution in 2022, this year's fiscal deficit is expected at 5.3% of GDP, reflecting the impact of the energy crisis and pointing to a more accommodative fiscal stance. Yields have maintained a volatile pattern since the beginning of 2023, while the spread vs. Germany remained broadly stable.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product typemonthly/ quarterly
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Market cap-
AvailabilityAll [1]


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