|2023/03/24 / Erste Group Research|
Inflation should fall further
Next week, a first flash estimate of Eurozone inflation for March (March 31) will be published.
Given the base effects, we expect inflation to fall further in March. Due to the outbreak of the Ukraine war at the end of February 2022, there was a temporary sharp increase in oil prices in March 2022. Due to these high comparative values from the previous year, we expect an above-average drop in the dynamics of energy prices in March 2023.
Due to the recent turmoil in the US banking sector, as well as the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, the uncertainty for our inflation forecast has increased. We will now have to observe to what extent the Eurozone economy will suffer directly or indirectly from the turmoil.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product type||weekly / bi-weekly|
|Product name||Week ahead|
|Topic in focus||Macro/ Fixed income|
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