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2023/09/15 / Erste Group Research

Growth outlook under high level of uncertainty

2Q23 GDP maintained a solid pace, as the headline figure posted 1.4% y/y growth, with domestic demand delivering a mixed performance, while net exports once again had a strong positive contribution. The outlook suggests that private consumption would remain in lower gear, while investment activity should remain solid. Net export is expected to have a positive role, amid more subdued import dynamics. Bottom line, we expect the FY23 figure around 1.5%, with pronounced risks, as the flood aftermath affects economic activity.

The gradual deceleration trend on the inflation side continued, with CPI currently moving in the mid-single-digit area. We expect CPI to keep a moderate footprint, albeit at a lower pace than seen in the previous period, as food price pressures remain present. Following a solid consolidation effort in 2022, this year’s budget deficit is set to increase, due to higher expenditure to provide support after strong floods hit the country in August. Yields have maintained largely expected movements thus far in 3Q23, with the 10Y curve moving in the 3.3-3.5% interval, while the spread vs. Germany remained steady around 90bp.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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