|2022/09/15 / Erste Group Research|
Easing for the Euro
Since around mid-August, the EURUSD has barely moved and is trading just at parity. The increasing filling of gas storage facilities in Europe will further alleviate fears of an energy crisis and ensure falling wholesale prices for gas and electricity. This will improve the outlook for the Eurozone economy relative to the US, which argues for a firmer euro.
We expect inflation rates in the Eurozone to fall continuously from the beginning of 2023 at the latest. In this environment, we expect Eurozone yields to rise only very slightly at the long end. Against this backdrop, we see only minor firming potential for the euro against the yen in the short term.
We currently expect the situation on the energy markets in Europe to ease from the end of October. In this environment, the euro should be able to strengthen somewhat against the Swiss franc. However, the short-term development of the exchange rate will also depend heavily on the SNB's next interest rate decision at its meeting on September 22.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||Forex News|
|Topic in focus||FX, Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Japan, Switzerland, United States|
|Currency in focus||Swiss Franc, US Dollar|
|Sector in focus||-|
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