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2019/11/26 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special | First glance at 2020


On average, the CEE8 should slow to 3.2% in 2020 (from 3.8%), mirroring the mostly sluggish external environment. The weakening global outlook, unresolved protectionism and possible structural changes in the car sector are weighing more and more on CEE’s performance. However, CEE economies should remain among growth leaders in EU in 2020 as strong domestic demand has been shielding the region from the external slowdown. It will continue to be the pillar of the growth in 2020.

Croatia is likely to be in the spotlight next year. We see ERM II membership as the next milestone regarding the rating outlook. Mid-2020 entry into ERM II would imply Fitch and S&P likely delivering one notch in 2H20.

Romania, on the other hand, will be fighting its battle on the opposite front. In the absence of corrective measures, the soaring budget deficit is likely to trigger a negative response (change of the outlook to negative) from rating agencies in 2020.

In Czechia, Hungary and Poland, next year should be business as usual. With no major political events on the radar, the extent of the economic slowdown may become the biggest worry.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/11/26
Languageen
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCEE, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus-
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